In the 1980s, biologist Paul Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon made a bet on how the prices of five materials would change over the next decade, reflecting their contrasting views on resource scarcity. Ehrlich believed that population growth would deplete resources, leading to a steep price increase, while Simon believed innovation would counter scarcity, keeping prices stable. When the results came in, all five materials had decreased in price. Examining long-term price trends, it seems that prices have remained relatively consistent over the past century, indicating that we may not be as close to running out of resources as Ehrlich predicted. Despite ongoing debate, the data leans more towards Simon’s perspective.
https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet