The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a crucial element in Earth’s climate system, and its potential collapse is a major concern. Recent studies have shown a connection between AMOC and abrupt climate fluctuations, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. However, there is significant uncertainty regarding the threshold for a collapse and the timing of such an event. In this study, the authors use statistical measures called early-warning signals (EWSs) to detect an approaching AMOC collapse. They find that increased variance is a more reliable EWS than autocorrelation. The analysis suggests that a transition of the AMOC is likely to occur between 2025 and 2095 with a 95% confidence interval.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w