In this web content, the author discusses the Prosecutor’s Fallacy, which is a logical error involving conditional probabilities. The fallacy occurs when the probability of innocence given the evidence is wrongly assumed to be extremely small, leading to false assumptions of guilt. The author provides examples of this fallacy, such as wrongful murder convictions, misinterpreted medical test results, and misunderstandings in personal relationships. The base rate is often ignored in these situations, which is the prevalence of the disease or the probability of guilt or innocence based on other evidence. The author concludes by mentioning that understanding the Prosecutor’s Fallacy requires careful thought and visual explanations may be helpful.
https://www.cebm.ox.ac.uk/news/views/the-prosecutors-fallacy