In Mexico, Hurricane Otis underwent an unprecedented rapid intensification, going from a 50 mph tropical storm to a 165 mph category 5 hurricane in just 48 hours. This speedy intensification caught meteorologists off guard and exposed a catastrophic failure in forecasting. The storm was perfectly placed in an environment that facilitated its intensification, with beneficial wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Despite the best efforts of human forecasters, the models failed to accurately predict the storm’s rapid intensification. This failure serves as a reminder that weather forecasting is not infallible and there is still much work to be done in understanding these phenomena.
https://theeyewall.com/trying-to-make-sense-of-why-otis-exploded-en-route-to-acapulco-this-week/