The Dunning-Kruger effect, which suggests that unskilled people tend to overestimate their competence, has gained popularity since its discovery in 1999. However, recent research suggests that the effect may be nothing more than a statistical artifact caused by autocorrelation. Autocorrelation occurs when a variable is correlated with itself, and in the case of the Dunning-Kruger effect, it happens when test scores are mixed into both sides of an equation. When analyzed using statistically valid methods, the Dunning-Kruger effect disappears. Despite this, the original paper by Dunning and Kruger continues to be widely cited and many believe that the effect is a robust aspect of human psychology.
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-autocorrelation/