The author discusses the potential insecurity of 2048 bit RSA encryption after the year 2030 and suggests that the minimum secure length should be increased to 3072 bits. This prediction is based on the exponential growth of computing technology and factoring efficiency observed in recent years. However, the author argues that there are limitations to this exponential growth, particularly in algorithm performance and computing power. They analyze the current state of factoring achievements and computing technology to conclude that there is currently no rational reason to increase RSA key sizes beyond 2048 bits. The author also dismisses the threat of quantum computing to RSA encryption.
https://articles.59.ca/doku.php?id=em:20482030