In the past, the distribution of value in technology waves has varied between startups and incumbents. The first internet wave saw most of the value going to startups like Google and Amazon, with a smaller share going to incumbents like Microsoft and Apple. In the mobile wave, incumbents like Apple and Google captured most of the value, while startups like Whatsapp and Uber also had significant success. However, the prior wave of AI saw the majority of value going to incumbents despite a lot of startup activity. The author explores possible reasons for this, such as the prior wave of AI not creating products that were significantly better than incumbents or facing challenges in hard markets. They also discuss why the current wave of unsupervised learning AI may be different, with stronger technology and more startups providing valuable infrastructure. Overall, the author believes that startups will finally start to see real value from AI.
https://blog.eladgil.com/p/ai-startup-vs-incumbent-value