In a blog post, the author discusses their mathematical modeling of the game of dreidel. They explain the rules of the game, where players spin a dreidel and take certain actions based on the outcome. The author recounts how a previous simulation of the game found that it took an average of 860 spins to finish the game. However, they believe that mathematical modeling can provide more accurate results. They use a probabilistic model checker called PRISM to create a model of the game and calculate probabilities of various events happening. The author highlights the limitations of PRISM but also mentions that they keep finding excuses to use it. They provide snippets of code from their PRISM model and give examples of different queries they can run to gain insights into the game. The author concludes by mentioning their future plans, including writing a new formal methods talk and continuing their Logic for Programmers project.
https://buttondown.email/hillelwayne/archive/i-formally-modeled-dreidel-for-no-good-reason/