Many Earth system models used to project future climate changes are missing a crucial piece of the puzzle: accurate representation of permafrost dynamics. Thawing permafrost in the North, which contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, is one of the biggest uncertainties in climate predictions. However, only two out of eleven models used in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report include permafrost carbon cycling, using simplified approximations that don’t fully capture the complex ways carbon is released as the climate warms. Short funding cycles and limited resources hinder the development of these models, highlighting the need for targeted funding and skilled software developers to improve accuracy.
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-earth-key-piece-future-climate.html