Marketers love making predictions, but the author argues that most of them are nothing more than fantasies dressed up as science. They analyzed the predictions made by management consultancies up until the year 2050 and found a shocking number of over 15,000 predictions. However, when it comes to accurately predicting recessions, GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and media spend, the track record is abysmal. The author highlights studies showing that economists have failed to predict the majority of recessions, as well as predictions made by organizations like the IMF and World Bank that were way off the mark. The conclusion is that predictions in most fields are unreliable and little better than blind chance.
https://www.alexmurrell.co.uk/articles/the-forecasting-fallacy